Research

LCERPA members offer expertise in a wide range of fields. On this page we provide information on our members' recent research and publications, including papers published as part of the LCERPA Working Paper Series.

Earlier years' publications and working papers :   2016   2015   2014   2013   2012   2011   2010   2009   2008

Published and forthcoming journal articles (2017)

Bakas, D. , T. Panagiotidis and G. Pelloni. 2017. Regional and sectoral evidence of the macroeconomic effects of labor reallocation: A panel data analysis. Economic Inquiry 55(1): 501-526.

Benjamin, Dwayne, Loren Brandt, and Brian McCaig. 2017. “Growth with equity: Income inequality in Vietnam,” Journal of Economic Inequality, 15(1), 25-46.

Chong, T., S. C. Tsui, and W. H. Chan. Forthcoming 2017. “Factor Pricing in Commodity Futures and the Role of Liquidity" Quantitative Finance

Fung, J., Webb, R. I., and W. H. Chan. Forthcoming 2017. “Do Derivative Markets Contain Useful Information for Signaling “Hot Money” Flows? ” Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies.

Legree, S., T. Schirle and M. Skuterud. 2017. "The Effect of Labor Relations Laws on Unionization Rates within the Labor Force: Evidence from the Canadian Provinces" Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 56(4): 605-639.

Lombardi, D., P. Siklos, and S. St.Amand. "Government Bond Yields at the Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence" Contemporary Economic Policy.

Ruffle, B. J. and Y. Tobol. 2017. "Clever enough to tell the truth," Experimental Economics, 20:1, 130-155. DOI:10.1007/s10683-016-9479-y.

Published and forthcoming book chapters, books, and other publications

Chong, T, Wang, D, and W. Chan. Forthcoming Do Price Limits Increases Stock Market Volatility in China? Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting.

McCaig, B. and N. Pavcik. Forthcoming. Moving out of agriculture: Structural change in Vietnam in Structural change, fundamentals, and growth, eds. Margaret McMillan and Claudia Paz Sepulveda.

McCaig, B., M. McMillan, I. Verduzco, and K. Jefferis. Forthcoming. Stuck in the middle? Structural change and productivity growth in Botswana, in Structural change, fundamentals, and growth, eds. Margaret McMillan and Claudia Paz Sepulveda.

Milligan, K. and T. Schirle. Forthcoming. The labour force participation of older men in Canada In Social Security Programs Around the World: The Capacity to Work at Older Ages, David A. Wise (ed.) NBER Book Series. University of Chicago Press.

Milligan, K. and T. Schirle. 2017. Health Capacity to Work at Older Ages: Evidence from Canada Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Capacity to Work at Older Ages. NBER Book Series. University of Chicago Press.

Schirle, T. 2017 Gender equity and the income tax system in Income Tax at 100 Years: Essays and Reflections on the Income War Tax Act, Jinyan Li, J. Scott Wilkie and Larry F. Chapman, eds., Canadian Tax Foundation.

LCERPA Working Papers - 2017

Kaplan, T.R., B.J. Ruffle, and Z. Shtudiner. Cooperation through Coordination in Two Stages LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-8, September 2017.

Abstract. Efficient cooperation often requires coordination, such that exactly one of two players takes an available action. If the decisions whether to pursue the action are made simultaneously, then neither or both may acquiesce leading to an inefficient outcome. However, inefficiency may be reduced if players move sequentially. We test this experimentally by introducing repeated two-stage versions of such a game where the action is individually profitable. In one version, players may wait in the first stage to see what their partner did and then coordinate in the second stage. In another version, sequential decision-making is imposed by assigning one player to move in stage one and the other in stage two. Although there are fewer cooperative decisions in the two-stage treatments, we show that overall subjects coordinate better on efficient cooperation and on avoiding both acquiescing. Yet, only some pairs actually achieve higher profits, while the least cooperative pairs do worse in the two-stage games than their single-stage counterparts. For these, rather than facilitating coordination, the additional stage invites attempts to disguise uncooperative play, which are met with punishment.

Morrison, W.G., and J. de Wit. US Open Skies Agreements and Unlevel Playing Fields. LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-7, August 2017.

Abstract. We examine the relationship between ‘Open Skies’ agreements (OSAs) signed between the USA and various countries or regions on these markets and the absence of a so called ‘level playing field’; i.e. the existence of subsidies and other forms of protection that advantage one nation’s airlines over those of co-signatories to an OSA. We argue that under an oligopoly market structure, strategic competition brought about by OSAs creates incentives to subsidize and/or protect domestic airlines. Such incentives are maintained or amplified by political lobbying efforts that bias civil aviation policies towards producer interests over wider measures of economic welfare. We report on financial aid and policies which have co-evolved along with OSAs and which have advantaged US airlines during the OSA period and which suggest that unlevel playing fields have been perpetuated and possibly made more unlevel during the era of OSAs.

Shiamptanis, C. Austerity Measures: Do they avert solvency crises? LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-6, June 2017.

Abstract. Many countries are adopting austerity measures, whereby governments aggressively raise taxes, with the hope to dispel future solvency crisis. This paper investigates the implications of austerity on the likelihood of solvency crisis. We derive the maximum level of debt consistent with solvency, labelled as the effective fiscal limit on debt, and we show that its position depends on austerity. We find that countries like Italy that undergo strict austerity could lower their effective fiscal limit and induce a solvency crisis in the near future.

Gkiourkas, E., T. Panagiotidis, and G. Pelloni. Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Labor Reallocation. LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-5, June 2017.

Abstract. We revisit the macroeconomic effects of labor reallocation within the framework of Campbell and Kuttner (1996). We re-estimate their model, update the sample, and employ generalized and local impulse response functions. We confirm that total employment responses to reallocation shocks remain significant.

Siklos, P. What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors. LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-4, April 2017.

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Lombardi, D., P. Siklos, and S. St.Amand. Government Bond Yields at the Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence. LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-3, April 2017.

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Wu, Y.W., and C. Liu. Bank CEO inside debt and loan contracting LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-2, April 2017.

Abstract. Contrary to the theoretical prediction that CEOs with large debt-based compensation take lower levels of risk, we find that banks with higher CEO inside debt compensation extend syndicated loans with smaller number of lenders, lower spread, less covenant, and higher maturity. Using two-stage selection models, we reconciled these seemingly counter intuitive results of inside debt leads to less conservative loan contracting terms by incorporating banks selection effect. We find that the mechanism of inside debt limit bank risk-taking in loan contracting is through making loans to safer borrowers in the first place, but not through tighter loan terms. These results are consistent and robust to instrumental variables and structure models that control for the endogeneity of relationships.

Wu, Y.W., C. Truong, and C.Liu. Lehman Sisters: Female Bank Executives and Risk-Taking LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-1, March 2017.

Abstract. This paper studies the impact of female executives on risk-taking within US banks. An examination of US bank panel data from 2002 to 2010 provides evidence that female executives reduce levels of risk-taking in banks. We also find that a more balanced gender ratio has a greater impact on bank risk-taking than merely with the presence of female executive. The results are robust to alternative specifications of riskiness and instrument variable approach. However, when we only use part of the sample period surrounding the financial crises of 2007-2008, the results do not hold. We interpret the results as suggesting that having female executives and more balanced gender ratios in the executive team reduces bank risk-taking overall. But the risk-reduction becomes less effective during crisis years.

Daniel, B.C. and C. Shiamptanis. "Predicting Sovereign Fiscal Crises: High-Debt Developed Countries." LCERPA Working Paper No. 2015-8, *Updated* March 2017.

Abstract. Every country has a fiscal limit on debt, beyond which the country's economic and political systems cannot raise taxes and/or reduce spending sufficiently to maintain solvency. We assume fiscal crises are created by insolvency due to fiscal limits, and use historical data on debt and surpluses to explain why countries with similar debt levels have different crisis experiences. We use values for the maximum historical surplus together with estimates of fiscal feedback rules to estimate debt limits for each country. Debt limits vary considerably across countries. Defining fiscal space as the largest increase in debt, for a particular surplus, consistent with solvency, we separate countries into risk categories based on fiscal space. Greece and Portugal eroded their fiscal space several years, prior to their fiscal crises, placing them in the highest risk category and predicting the crises that followed. Canada and Belgium maintained large enough fiscal space to achieve safe status. Other countries reduced fiscal space, with three eroding fiscal space in 2014, warning of future crises.

LCERPA Commentaries and Other Analysis

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